Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains suspended after a brief reopening, with the waterway officially declared closed by Iran following renewed tensions. The 56% implied probability reflects a fragile recovery trajectory: historical data shows traffic rebounding to 25 vessels on a single day after the June 17 US–Iran agreement, yet collapsing back to near-standstill within days when Iran reversed its stance [2][4]. Comparable episodes in April and June 2026 saw volumes dip to less than 10% of the typical 130–140 daily crossings, with war-risk insurance surging and oil prices jumping 5% amid fears the ceasefire could unravel [6][8].

Traders must monitor the July 19 deadline for the US to fully lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a key condition under the memorandum of understanding that guarantees immediate navigation restarts [2]. Any delay or escalation—such as further attacks on commercial vessels, which occurred on a Taiwanese-operated ship in late June—could reignite the bottleneck and suppress transit calls below the 60-vessel threshold required for resolution [9]. The IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average is the sole settlement metric; since it excludes unreported ships, traders should watch for AIS signal deactivations, as five of eight incoming vessels were flagged “dark” during the last rebound attempt [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.