Starmer out by...?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister with no imminent threat to his position as of late 2024. Labour holds a substantial parliamentary majority following the July 2024 general election, and whilst the government faces typical policy pressures around NHS funding and economic growth, there is no credible reporting of internal party moves to remove him or circumstances forcing his resignation before year-end 2025.

UK Prime Ministers typically face removal through either general election defeat or internal party rebellion. Tony Blair served 10 years before stepping down voluntarily; Gordon Brown lasted three years before electoral defeat; David Cameron resigned following the Brexit referendum result. Starmer's position differs markedly: he commands a 169-seat majority, faces no immediate election requirement until 2029, and has consolidated control over Labour's machinery. Historical precedent suggests sitting Prime Ministers with working majorities rarely exit office mid-term absent extraordinary circumstances such as serious criminal charges, severe health crises, or catastrophic policy failures triggering mass backbench defection.

Traders should monitor parliamentary rebellions on major legislation, particularly around welfare reform or public sector pay, alongside any unexpected health announcements or criminal investigations affecting Starmer directly. The autumn 2025 spending review and any significant by-election results could shift Labour's parliamentary arithmetic, though current polling suggests the party retains broad support. Treasury performance data and inflation figures through 2025 will shape the political environment, but no scheduled events currently present obvious flashpoints for a change of Prime Minister.

Methodology

We track Starmer out by...? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.