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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Prediction Today.

UNRWA 12% Volodymyr Zelenskyy 11% Donald Trump 8% Yulia Navalnaya 7% Volume: $21.8M Liquidity: $2.0M Closes: 10 Oct 2026
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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
12% 88% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
12% 88% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
UNRWA12%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy11%
Donald Trump8%
Yulia Navalnaya7%
Pope Leo XIV5%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani4%
Narendra Modi3%
Greta Thunberg2%
International Court of Justice2%
Julian Assange1%
Elon Musk1%
António Guterres1%
Khaled Mashal1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan1%
Xi Jinping1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa1%
Charlie Kirk1%
Mohammed bin Salman1%
Vladimir Putin0%
Benjamin Netanyahu0%
Person A0%
Person B0%
Person C0%
Person D0%
Person E0%
Person F0%
Person G0%
Person H0%
Person I0%
Person J0%
Person K0%
Person L0%
Person M0%
Person N0%
Person O0%
Person P0%
Person Q0%
Person R0%
Person S0%
Person T0%
Person U0%
Person V0%
Person W0%
Person X0%
Person Y0%
Person Z0%
Person AA0%
Person AB0%
Person AC0%
Person AD0%
Person AE0%
Person AF0%
Person AG0%
Person AH0%
Person AI0%
Person AJ0%
Person AK0%
Person AL0%
Person AM0%
Person AN0%
Person AO0%
Person AP0%
Person AQ0%
Person AR0%
Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
Person AX0%
Other0%

Market context

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has publicly confirmed 287 candidates are shortlisted for the 2026 Peace Prize, with US President Donald Trump reportedly among them, a development that has shifted market sentiment in the last 48 hours[1][6]. This surge in named speculation, particularly involving high-profile political figures, contrasts with the committee's usual silence on nominees until the October announcement, creating a tangible catalyst for the current 8% crowd-implied probability of a Trump-led resolution[1].

Historically, the Nobel Peace Prize has frequently awarded contemporary and controversial political actors, often sparking global debate rather than consensus[10]. Past instances where the prize went to sitting heads of state or figures embroiled in active conflict suggest that a 8% probability for a Trump outcome is not anomalous but reflects the committee's precedent of recognising contentious yet influential leaders, even if the final decision remains unpredictable until the October 9 declaration[1][3].

Traders must monitor the committee's internal voting schedule, which concludes in early October, and watch for any official press releases from the Norwegian Nobel Institute regarding candidate shortlists before the final announcement[3][5]. The primary catalyst remains the October 9 press conference in Oslo, where the laureate(s) will be named, with the award ceremony following on December 10; any leak or official confirmation regarding Trump's inclusion would be the definitive trigger for a sharp probability shift[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
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