Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden’s parliamentary election is fixed for 13 September 2026, with the Riksdag set to elect the next Prime Minister shortly after; the current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific candidate reflects the absence of a clear frontrunner in the final weeks of campaigning, as polls show Socialdemokraterna leading at 32.4% but without a decisive majority[4]. This mirrors the 2022 outcome, where a right-wing bloc secured only a narrow majority and required a month of negotiations to form the Tidö Agreement, ultimately installing Ulf Kristersson as Prime Minister after complex coalition talks[1]. The pattern suggests that even a leading party may not immediately produce a PM, and interim caretakers will not resolve this market, reinforcing the need to watch for post-election coalition announcements rather than pre-election headlines.

Traders should monitor the release of final opinion polls over the next 81 days, particularly any shifts in support for Sverigedemokraterna (currently 19.4%) and Kristdemokraterna (+0.5 gain), which could alter coalition viability[4]. The Swedish Election Authority will publish voting cards by 26 August 2026, and polling stations will open 08:00–20:00 on election day, with live results available on val.se that evening[2][3]. Crucially, any foreign malign information campaigns targeting the election—now under active government protection measures—could disrupt the process and delay PM appointment, a risk highlighted in recent government policy updates[6]. The decisive catalyst will be the Riksdag’s formal vote for Prime Minister, expected within days of the election, as no interim figure counts for resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Next Prime Minister of Sweden on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.