Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

No new signing has emerged in the past day, and the market is still pricing only a low single-digit chance of an Abraham Accords expansion before the end-2026 deadline. With the current crowd-implied probability at 6% YES, traders are effectively saying that a formal, publicly acknowledged normalisation agreement remains possible but still requires a clear diplomatic step that has not yet materialised.[1][2]

The historical guide is that the Accords have moved in bursts rather than by steady accumulation: the core deals were signed in 2020 by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, then expanded to Morocco and Sudan, with later additions such as Kazakhstan showing that accession is possible but uncommon and often tied to a broader strategic opening.[3][4][7] That matters for pricing because the market settles only on a formal signing explicitly linked to the Abraham Accords framework, not on informal contacts, public hints, or general rapprochement.[1] The breadth of named candidates also signals uncertainty rather than consensus, with Somaliland currently the most-backed single outcome across prediction venues, while Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, Oman and others remain in the mix.[1][2][5]

The near-term catalysts are likely to be official announcements, a scheduled signing ceremony, or a clear US-mediated diplomatic package that both sides publicly frame as part of the Accords.[1][8] A trader should watch for changes in regional war dynamics, US pressure on key Middle Eastern capitals, and any reported bilateral talks that move from speculation to confirmed state statements, because market resolution depends on government acknowledgement rather than press chatter.[1][8][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.