Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Trump remains in office with no announced plans to resign or face imminent removal proceedings as of late January 2026. The 1% probability reflects the extremely narrow window—just eighteen months remain until settlement—and the absence of any active constitutional or legal mechanism currently positioned to force departure. No new developments in the past 48 hours have altered the baseline assessment that a sitting president with party control of Congress faces minimal removal risk through standard channels.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Richard Nixon resigned in August 1974 under threat of impeachment after the House Judiciary Committee voted to recommend articles; no president has been removed via the 25th Amendment, and impeachment followed by conviction requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority, a threshold no modern president has approached. The market's settlement terms exclude temporary invocations of Section 3 or Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, narrowing the scope to permanent departure only. Trump's previous impeachments (2019 and 2021) resulted in acquittals, establishing a pattern of Senate protection.

Traders monitoring this market should track developments in ongoing legal proceedings, particularly any Supreme Court rulings on immunity or sentencing outcomes in New York state cases, though these carry uncertain political consequences. Congressional dynamics matter: any significant shift in Republican support or unexpected health events would alter probabilities materially. The market's sensitivity remains low given the structural barriers to removal and the compressed timeframe, with most movement likely triggered by explicit resignation announcements rather than incremental political shifts.

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.