Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up from the near-standstill seen in April, but it is still well below the roughly normal level implied by the market threshold. Reuters reported on 23 June that tanker movement was increasing after weeks of disruption, while later coverage said ships were still moving in and out of the Gulf but volumes remained materially lower than before the conflict.[4][12]

That context helps explain the 22% YES price: the market is not asking for a full recovery to pre-war conditions, only for IMF Portwatch’s 7-day average to reach 60 or more. Even so, comparable episodes this year show how sticky the rebound can be. Reuters and other outlets described traffic at less than 10% of typical volumes in early April, and CNN said flows averaged about 5% of pre-war levels across the following months, underscoring how quickly headline ceasefires can fail to translate into sustained shipping normalisation.[9][2]

For the next few weeks, traders will be watching whether the U.S.–Iran talks keep reducing insurance, security, and routing friction, and whether any fresh maritime restrictions are reversed or reimposed. Recent reporting has also pointed to temporary improvements after diplomatic moves, including the lifting of a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian vessels and reports of more ships entering the Gulf than leaving it, but Al Jazeera said renewed US-Iran fighting on 14 July pushed oil to a one-month high and darkened the outlook again.[5][6][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.