Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial transit calls near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 ships daily. This status follows a brief reopening on 21 April 2026 that collapsed the next day after Iranian drone strikes and retaliatory US action, leaving over 150 vessels stranded and war-risk insurance premiums at extreme levels. The crowd-implied 84% probability of a return to normal by December 2026 hinges entirely on whether geopolitical tensions ease enough to permit sustained maritime flow, not on the current near-standstill.

Historical parallels suggest such closures are rarely permanent; the 2026 disruption mirrors past regional conflicts where throughput resumed once ceasefire terms included reopening guarantees. However, President Trump has explicitly tied any ceasefire with Tehran to the strait’s reopening, and with negotiations stalled, a naval blockade remains in place. This dependency makes the probability sensitive to diplomatic shifts rather than operational capacity alone, as the physical route is intact but politically barred.

Traders must monitor announcements regarding US–Iran talks, which are tentatively scheduled but face disagreement over participation, and any updates on the memorandum of understanding that could mandate strait administration. Recent reports from CBS News note a kinetic pause but highlight uncertainty over whether talks will materialise, while NBC News confirms that actual transit figures may be understated due to GPS spoofing. A breakthrough in negotiations or a formal US withdrawal from the blockade would be the primary catalyst for the 60-call threshold to be met.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.