Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz still looks stuck in a traffic slump rather than a clean normalisation, with real-time trackers showing near-zero or heavily depressed transits versus a historical pace of about 60-plus ships a day. Recent reporting has also pointed to renewed disruptions this summer, including a fresh drop in crossings after fighting and blockades resumed, which keeps the market’s 48% yes price anchored to a narrow path back above the contract’s threshold. [1][15]

That is a very different backdrop from pre-crisis conditions, when the waterway routinely handled roughly 125 to 140 passages a day. Reuters said in late April that traffic was running at a fraction of normal, with about seven vessels a day, while later June and July coverage showed rebounds into the 30 to 60 range at times but still short of full restoration; in other words, the market only resolves yes once the seven-day average clears 60, not on one or two busy days. [10][11][12] That makes the current probability easiest to read as a bet on sustained, not temporary, improvement.

Traders should watch any ceasefire, naval security or reopening announcement from Washington, Tehran, or Gulf states, plus shipping guidance from insurers and maritime security bodies, because those have moved routing decisions before. Reuters and other reports have highlighted how traffic can jump when tensions ease, yet remain fragile if crews still face blockade risk, mine-clearing delays, or vessel-seizure fears; the key catalyst is not a headline declaring the strait open, but evidence that carriers are willing to keep sending ships through it at scale for long enough to lift the seven-day average above 60. [12][13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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