Los Angeles Mayoral Election

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Los Angeles voters will choose their next mayor on 2 June 2026, with a runoff scheduled for November should no candidate secure an outright majority. The 60% implied probability reflects moderate confidence in a decisive first-round result, though LA's recent electoral patterns suggest a competitive field remains likely. Current frontrunners include incumbent Karen Bass, who faces mixed approval ratings amid homelessness and public safety concerns, alongside potential challengers from city council and business backgrounds.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance: LA's last mayoral runoff occurred in 2001 when James Hahn and Antonio Villaraigosa split the primary vote. The city's electorate has grown more fragmented since then, with multiple viable candidates typically emerging in open-seat races. The 60% probability for a first-round winner implies traders assess roughly 40% odds of a November runoff, suggesting the field remains sufficiently divided that consolidation around a single frontrunner appears incomplete.

Key developments to monitor include candidate filing deadlines in December 2025 and January 2026, which will clarify the final ballot composition. Campaign spending disclosures and polling releases through spring 2026 will signal whether any candidate achieves the 50%-plus threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Bass's approval trajectory and any late-entry challengers from the business or reform communities represent the primary variables affecting whether the race concludes in June or extends to November.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.