Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods has no known federal criminal convictions that would require presidential clemency, making a pardon from Donald Trump by mid-2026 an extraordinarily unlikely scenario. Woods faced DUI charges in Florida in 2017 following his arrest near his home, but accepted a plea deal to reckless driving and completed a diversion programme, resulting in no criminal record. The market's 1% probability reflects this fundamental absence of a legal mechanism triggering clemency action.

Presidential pardons typically address individuals convicted of federal crimes seeking sentence reduction or record expungement. Trump issued 143 pardons and 36 commutations during his first term, predominantly targeting political allies, financial crimes convicts, and family members. Woods falls into none of these categories. The only comparable scenario would involve a state-level conviction somehow becoming federal jurisdiction—an implausible legal pathway given Woods's 2017 resolution and subsequent clean record.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for any unexpected federal charges against Woods, though no credible reporting suggests such developments. The settlement window extends through June 2026, covering Trump's second term, but absent a genuine federal conviction, the pardon mechanism remains dormant. Any movement in this market would likely reflect speculative positioning rather than material changes in Woods's legal standing or Trump's clemency intentions.

Methodology

This page reviews Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.