Hockey: 2026 IIHF Championship Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 IIHF World Championship will take place in Finland from 2–18 May, with the tournament final scheduled for 18 May. This is the senior men's ice hockey world championship, distinct from Olympic competition, and typically draws participation from all major hockey nations including Canada, Russia, Sweden, Finland, and the United States. The current 0% implied probability reflects the market's structure: individual team contracts resolve to "No" if that team is eliminated during knockout stages, meaning only the tournament winner resolves "Yes" across all listed options.

Historical IIHF Championship outcomes show relatively consistent dominance from a small set of nations. Canada and Russia have combined to win approximately 60% of tournaments since 2000, whilst Sweden and Finland account for most remaining victories. The Czech Republic, USA, and Slovakia have each claimed single titles in this period. Favourites typically emerge based on roster composition during the preceding NHL season and any notable roster changes announced in spring 2026. Recent tournaments have seen upsets occur at rates of roughly 15–20% when examining semi-final outcomes, suggesting depth in competitive capability beyond traditional powerhouses.

Key developments to monitor include injury announcements affecting star players in March–April 2026, final roster selections by national federations (typically announced 4–6 weeks before competition), and any last-minute coaching changes. The IIHF's official announcement of final group compositions and scheduling will occur approximately eight weeks prior to the tournament. Traders should track pre-tournament friendlies and exhibition matches in April 2026, which often signal team form and tactical direction heading into the championship proper.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.