Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Maxx Crosby remains under contract with the Las Vegas Raiders through the 2025 season, with no reported trade interest or release discussions as of late 2024. The defensive end signed a four-year, $98 million extension in 2023, making him one of the franchise's cornerstone players. The 0% implied probability reflects the baseline expectation that he stays put unless the Raiders actively move him or he becomes available through free agency after the 2025 campaign concludes.

Historical precedent suggests elite pass rushers on long-term deals rarely change teams mid-contract unless their original franchise initiates a trade. Comparable cases—such as Danielle Hunter's 2022 trade from Minnesota to Houston whilst under contract—typically occur only when teams face salary cap constraints or rebuild cycles. The Raiders have shown commitment to their defensive core, and Crosby's performance level (consistently among the league's sack leaders) makes him valuable to retain rather than trade away.

The settlement window closes 31 August 2026, giving roughly 20 months for circumstances to shift. Key catalysts include the Raiders' 2025 season performance and any potential front-office restructuring, though no immediate triggers are evident. Contract restructures or extensions could occur, but these would not constitute a team change. Traders should monitor Raiders ownership decisions and any public statements regarding roster direction during the 2025 offseason, typically January through March 2026.

Methodology

We track Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.