"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Young Washington has already debuted with a solid $7.6 million on Friday, beating the collapsing *Supergirl* and securing the top spot for the July 4 weekend, yet the market’s 0% YES probability implies traders expect the final three-day gross to fall below the lowest bracket. Historically, Angel Studios’ historical biopics like *Sound of Freedom* have shown strong second-week holds, but opening weekends for PG-13 historical dramas timed to national anniversaries often see a 15–25% drop from Friday to Sunday, suggesting a total near $18–$20 million if Saturday and Sunday follow typical patterns.

The critical catalysts now are Saturday and Sunday’s actual box office figures, which will replace Friday’s studio estimate and determine the final three-day total; any surprise surge from Independence Day crowds could push the gross above $20 million, while a sharper-than-expected dip would confirm the current 0% outlook. Traders should monitor Angel Studios’ official weekend update, expected Sunday evening, and watch for any sequels or marketing pushes—such as the hinted George Washington sequel announcement—that could alter post-opening momentum, as noted in Scott Mendelson’s latest box office analysis [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.