MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

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Market context

Nasim Nuñez currently leads the 2026 MLB regular season with 31 stolen bases, narrowly ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. at 28, yet the market assigns only an 8% chance to any specific player winning the title. This low probability mirrors historical volatility where mid-season leaders frequently lose ground; for instance, in 2024, the player with the most steals at the All-Star break finished third by September. The 8% figure reflects the sheer number of credible contenders, including projected frontrunners like Elly De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson, who are expected to surpass current totals once the season progresses, making a single-player victory statistically unlikely without a dominant breakout.

Traders must monitor the upcoming roster decisions and injury reports, particularly for De La Cruz, whose recent hamstring strain could alter his pace significantly. FantasyPros projections suggest De La Cruz and Simpson are poised to reach 41 steals, a gap that would dwarf Nuñez’s current tally if both remain healthy [4]. Additionally, watch the official MLB standings updates for the NL East, where the Braves and Phillies are locked in a tight division race that may force teams to prioritise rest over aggressive base-stealing in late September [1]. The settlement window ending 28 September 2026 means the final month’s performance will be decisive, and any announcement regarding player rest protocols or lineup changes will be the primary catalyst for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews MLB: Stolen Bases Leader across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.