New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Mets travel to Seattle for a June 1st evening fixture against the Mariners, with the market currently pricing the home side's chances at 54 per cent. Recent movement has been modest, though the 46 per cent implied probability for New York reflects the typical slight disadvantage visiting teams face in baseball markets, particularly in West Coast matchups where travel fatigue and time-zone adjustment factor into pricing.

Historical data on interleague play between these franchises shows relatively balanced outcomes when controlling for strength of schedule and roster composition. The Mets' record against AL West opponents over the past three seasons has hovered near .500, whilst Seattle's home-field advantage in June typically translates to a 52–55 per cent win probability in neutral matchups. Current season performance through late May will be the primary determinant here; teams on winning streaks tend to see their implied probabilities shift 3–5 percentage points beyond baseline home-field advantage.

Traders should monitor roster updates through to game time, particularly any late-inning bullpen availability announcements from either side. Pitching matchup confirmation—due typically 24 hours before first pitch—often triggers modest repricing, especially if either team deploys an unexpected starter or pulls a scheduled pitcher for rest. Weather conditions at T-Mobile Park, notably wind direction and temperature affecting fly-ball carry, occasionally shift the market by 1–2 percentage points in late-spring Seattle games. The settlement window extends to June 9th, allowing for postponement contingencies common in early June scheduling.

Methodology

This page reviews New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.