Iran leader end of 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's political structure concentrates formal authority in the Supreme Leader, a position held by Ayatollah Khamenei since 1989, whilst executive power flows through an elected president. The 4% probability reflects the market's assessment that Khamenei—currently 85 years old—is unlikely to be succeeded or incapacitated before the settlement date in late 2026. No significant change in Iranian leadership dynamics has emerged in the past 48 hours, though ongoing factional tensions between hardline and reformist camps within Iran's government continue to shape succession planning discussions among Iranian elites.

Khamenei's health status remains opaque to external observers, a structural constraint that historically shapes these markets. The 1989 transition from Ayatollah Khomeini to Khamenei occurred rapidly following the former's death, demonstrating that Iranian succession can shift suddenly. However, Khamenei has maintained visible public appearances and retained institutional control through the Revolutionary Guards and judiciary, both loyal power bases. The current president, Masoud Pezeshkian, holds no succession pathway under Iran's constitutional framework.

Traders should monitor statements from the Expediency Discernment Council, which formally advises on succession matters, and any announcements regarding Khamenei's public engagements. International sanctions and domestic economic pressures may indirectly affect regime stability, though these have not historically triggered leadership transitions. The Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader, meets periodically but has shown no public indication of preparing for succession discussions ahead of end-2026.

Methodology

We track Iran leader end of 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.