US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The latest change is that US and Iranian officials have already put a written framework on the table, with mediators saying it maps out a 60-day path towards a final agreement rather than a full nuclear settlement. Reuters reported on 12 June that a signing in Europe was being discussed, and by mid-June AP said the parties had signed an initial pact that starts a 60-day negotiation period, which matters because this market only pays on a *qualifying written diplomatic instrument* signed or adopted by the deadline, not on talk of progress alone.[9][15][17]

For a read on the current 0% crowd price, the closest comparison is the 2015 JCPOA process: there was a long runway of interim understandings, technical drafts, and staged concessions before any final instrument was reached. Even this year’s February Geneva round was described as “progress” with “general guiding principles”, but Reuters and Axios both stressed that major issues — especially enrichment, verification, and sanctions relief — still needed resolution before a true agreement existed.[4][6][10] That history suggests the market is unlikely to move on rhetoric unless the text is signed, adopted, and clearly covers the nuclear file in a formal diplomatic instrument.

The near-term catalysts are procedural rather than rhetorical: any published signing text, an official US or Iranian readout confirming mutual signature, or a new round of talks with dates and venue attached. Watch for whether the 60-day clock is extended by mutual consent, since the reported framework allows that and a delay would push resolution risk beyond the original timetable.[1][7][12] Reuters’ June reporting also flagged Europe as a possible signing location, so any announcement from Geneva or another European host would be the clearest trigger for repricing.[9][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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