"The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The Odyssey's second weekend box office performance will determine whether the film sustains momentum beyond its opening frame. With the settlement window closing 26 July 2026, traders are pricing in a 2% probability that the film achieves the specific bracket thresholds required for a YES resolution, suggesting expectations of either a sharp drop-off or a hold that falls short of the market's defined performance levels.

Second-weekend holds for major releases typically range between 45–65% of opening weekend grosses, though this varies significantly by genre and critical reception. Films with strong word-of-mouth and limited competition tend toward the higher end; those facing negative reviews or new blockbuster releases often see steeper declines. The Odyssey's opening weekend performance, critical consensus, and the competitive landscape during late July will be the primary determinants of whether it can sustain the box office momentum needed to hit the resolution brackets. Historical precedent suggests that mid-budget releases with mixed reviews frequently experience 50–60% drops, whilst well-received tentpoles often hold closer to 55–70%.

Traders should monitor The Numbers' daily reporting closely as the 24–26 July weekend progresses, since final figures replace studio estimates and directly trigger resolution. Key variables include any major competing releases launching that same weekend, audience reviews on platforms like CinemaScore and Rotten Tomatoes following the opening weekend, and any studio marketing pushes or promotional activity. The low implied probability reflects either market expectations of a significant second-weekend decline or uncertainty about whether the film's performance will fall within the specific brackets defined for YES resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.