"The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

"The Breadwinner" is scheduled for a domestic theatrical release on 29 May 2026, with opening weekend box office performance to be measured across the three-day period through 31 May. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any confirmed release date announcement or studio backing as of late 2024. Without formal distribution agreements in place, the film's theatrical viability remains entirely speculative at this stage.

Animated features targeting family audiences have shown considerable variance in opening weekend performance depending on studio backing and marketing reach. Studio-distributed animated releases typically open between $20m and $60m domestically, though independent or limited releases can fall substantially below these benchmarks. The original "The Breadwinner" (2017) was a critically acclaimed but modestly performing animated film that grossed approximately $13m domestically across its entire theatrical run, establishing a baseline for audience appetite for this property.

Current market conditions hinge entirely on whether a distributor commits to theatrical release and the scale of that commitment. No recent announcements regarding "The Breadwinner" distribution have emerged in trade publications as of late 2024. The settlement window closes 1 June 2026, leaving approximately 18 months for distribution deals to materialise. Traders should monitor Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Box Office Pro for any studio acquisition announcements, which would represent the primary catalyst for shifting probability away from zero.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.