Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day

Current Probability

The Polymarket market "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" is currently trading at 57% YES. This means thousands of traders worldwide estimate the probability of this outcome at 57%.

These prices are generated by real capital (USDC) on the Polygon network — not by bookmaker margins. They reflect the aggregated collective judgement of informed market participants.

Why this market matters

Prediction markets like this one let informed participants put real money behind their views. Markets markets on Polymarket are characterised by deep liquidity and fast resolution. This market closes on 30 June 2026 with automatic USDC settlement.

How to trade this market step by step

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction). Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 57% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $175 if YES resolves true — a 75% gross return.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds.

How active is this market?

$3.1M in lifetime turnover and $210K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for markets contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book — the matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers. Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do I trade this market? Visit PolyGram, create an account, deposit USDC, and buy YES or NO shares. Trading takes minutes.

What happens at resolution? USDC payouts are automatically processed via smart contract on Polygon — typically within minutes of the event resolving.

Is this legal? Prediction market regulations vary by jurisdiction. Only trade with capital you can afford to lose.

Risk note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.