Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, with live trackers showing no commercial outbound transits and only four vessels visible, while the moving average sits at zero rather than anything near the 60-call threshold that would trigger a yes. That leaves the market priced as a low-probability reopening bet, and the last 24–48 hours have brought no sign of a sustained recovery in traffic.[1][2]

The main historical reference is the brief reopening in late April, when traffic flickered back before closing again the next day; that kind of stop-start pattern matters because the market does not need a full normalisation story, only a published 7-day average at or above 60 on any date before expiry. But with the current picture still near-zero, traders are effectively watching for a regime shift rather than ordinary volatility.[3]

The near-term catalysts are diplomatic and security-driven: any ceasefire, naval de-escalation, or shipping safety assurance could quickly change routing decisions, while a failed round of talks would reinforce the current standstill.[2][4] The key dependency is IMF PortWatch’s published series, because the settlement trigger is based on its 7-day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships”, not broader anecdotal tracker data, so any pickup has to be sustained long enough to show up in that measure.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.