Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has surged after the US and Iran signed a memorandum on 17 June guaranteeing immediate reopening, with 25 vessels passing on Thursday—the highest volume since April [1]. This spike follows a period where traffic was near zero due to Iran’s conflict-driven closure, which had halted roughly 20% of global oil production transit [1][2]. The current 46% crowd-implied probability reflects uncertainty over whether this rebound is sustained or temporary, given the strait’s history of abrupt closures.

Historical precedents show volatility: the strait briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 before closing again the next day, leaving over 150 ships stranded and throughput under 2% of normal levels [3]. Such fragility suggests that even with the new agreement, a single day meeting the transit threshold is plausible but not assured, as Iran’s commitment to restore pre-war traffic levels lacks binding enforcement and the US naval blockade lift is only scheduled by 19 July [1].

Traders should monitor the 19 July deadline for the US to fully lift its blockade and Iran’s subsequent traffic restoration efforts, as well as any announcements on toll arrangements beyond the initial 60-day toll-free window [1]. CNN is actively tracking real-time maps and charts to verify sustained traffic increases, while AXSMarine data confirms the recent volume spike [1]. Any deviation from the agreed timeline or renewed security threats could quickly reverse the current trend.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.