Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The current 0% YES probability reflects a settled reality: Disney and Pixar’s *Toy Story 5* has already secured the largest domestic opening weekend of 2026 with $160 million, a figure that no subsequent release can surpass given the market’s year-end settlement window[2][5]. This outcome mirrors the 2019 pattern where *Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker* dominated early but failed to retain the year’s top spot after *Avengers: Endgame* opened earlier; however, the 2026 case is distinct because the winner opened in June, leaving the entire second half of the year open for challengers that ultimately fell short[2].

Traders should now focus on the final confirmation of *Toy Story 5*’s standing against late-year tentpoles, particularly *Avengers: Doomsday*, which is scheduled for December 18 and carries the strongest pre-release tracking for a record-breaking holiday debut[5]. While *Avengers: Doomsday* previously commanded 76% market confidence before *Toy Story 5*’s results were confirmed, its potential to overtake the $160 million benchmark remains the only viable catalyst for a YES resolution[5]. Recent industry polls and teaser buzz continue to position *Avengers: Doomsday* as the year-end tentpole, but without a domestic opening exceeding $160 million, the market will resolve to NO[5].

No further announcements or schedule changes are expected to alter the settlement, as the box office data for *Toy Story 5* is now final and not subject to studio estimates[2]. The market’s resolution hinges solely on whether any film released after June 2026 can exceed $160 million domestically in its first three days, a threshold that has not been breached by any 2026 release since *Toy Story 5*[2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.