Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains the world's most critical maritime chokepoint, with roughly 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Warship transits through these 54-kilometre-wide waters have intensified markedly since 2019, when tensions between the United States and Iran escalated following the withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The current 5% implied probability reflects a baseline expectation that most major naval powers will continue avoiding deliberate Hormuz passages during the settlement window, though the definition's breadth—encompassing military support vessels alongside combat ships—creates ambiguity around what constitutes a "transit."

Historical precedent suggests the market may undervalue transit likelihood. Between 2020 and 2024, the US Navy conducted multiple Freedom of Navigation operations through the strait, whilst European navies including the Royal Navy and French Navy have periodically deployed vessels through the passage. The Houthis' escalating attacks on commercial shipping since late 2023 have prompted increased naval presence from multiple nations, though most operations have clustered in the Gulf of Aden rather than the strait itself.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding the Houthis' continued disruption campaign and any formal multinational naval task force deployments. The US Fifth Fleet's operational tempo and any Iranian provocations remain key dependencies. Recent reporting from maritime security firms indicates heightened alert levels persist, though no major new escalation has emerged in the past 48 hours to shift baseline assumptions about warship movement through the passage itself.

Methodology

This page reviews Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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