US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The latest shift is that Washington has started rolling back sanctions on Iranian oil and gas while the ceasefire framework remains in place, but the exact terms of any Hormuz traffic deal are still not fully public. Reuters said on 4 August that U.S. and Iranian signals were contradictory: Trump said talks were under way and warned of a “last chance”, while Tehran denied negotiations were happening or scheduled[3]. CBS reported that Treasury has waived existing sanctions on Iranian-origin crude, petrochemical and petroleum products through 21 August, a concrete step that makes some form of accommodation more plausible, even if it is not itself the required agreement[1].

The current probability should be read against a recent pattern of partial deals, announced understandings and technical follow-through rather than a single clean treaty. In June, the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding tied to reopening Hormuz and easing some constraints, with multiple outlets reporting that it took immediate effect and allowed ships to start moving again[9][18][20]. But Reuters also reported in early July that indirect talks in Doha ended without clear progress on a lasting peace, showing how quickly headline momentum has previously faded[6]. That makes a 69% YES price credible only if traders believe the present sanctions relief and ceasefire mechanics will be formalised into a fresh diplomatic instrument before the deadline.

The key catalysts are any official White House, Treasury or Foreign Ministry read-outs, plus mediator statements from Qatar or Oman, because recent reporting suggests they are still carrying the channel between the two sides[3][7]. Reuters noted on 4 August that shipping risk in Hormuz remains elevated after another strike on a vessel, so any new incident could either force a deal or delay one depending on blame and escalation[3]. Traders should also watch whether the existing sanctions waiver is extended beyond 21 August, and whether there is a scheduled signing, cabinet approval or joint communique that explicitly commits Iran to specific shipping obligations through the strait[1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.