US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Market context

The latest shift is that Washington and Tehran have already put a written framework on paper, but the real market test now is whether that June accord survives the 60-day negotiation window and turns into a qualifying final instrument before 31 August. AP reported that the initial pact was signed and immediately linked to talks on Iran’s nuclear stockpile, sanctions relief and the Strait of Hormuz, while Reuters said the draft explicitly set a 60-day period before any final agreement.[1][3]

For probability context, a 1% price implies the market sees a completed, signed end-state as highly unlikely, and that is consistent with how often US-Iran nuclear diplomacy has broken down before the finish line. The JCPOA in 2015 was a rare full agreement, but the US退出 in 2018 and the collapse of follow-on talks left a long record of stop-start bargaining, partial commitments and disputed compliance rather than durable new deals.[6] Recent reporting also shows that even this week’s framework has generated political friction and uncertainty over whether the parties can lock in a formal document, not just a ceasefire-style understanding.[4][8]

The main catalysts are procedural rather than rhetorical: any scheduled signing, adoption or technical meeting, plus whether the parties confirm progress on uranium limits, asset release and sanctions waivers. CSIS said the memorandum was slated for signing in Geneva and that the next 60 days would focus on the stockpile and enrichment issues that matter most for a final text.[2] Reuters added that Washington would need to hold off on new sanctions while a final accord is negotiated, making any escalation, delay or collapse in talks a direct threat to this market.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.