"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Tracking for the next Star Wars film has moved up in the last 24-48 hours, with Box Office Theory citing a studio tracking range of about $80m for the 4-day Memorial Day frame and a wider forecast of $86m-$109m, while BoxOfficePro-linked reports have described estimates rising from roughly $71m to around $90m-$100m domestically. That leaves the market’s 78% yes price pointing to a debut comfortably above the lower end of the range, but still short of an outright lock given the spread between conservative and bullish reads.

The comparison set is fairly mixed. A result near the low 80s would put it around or below Solo: A Star Wars Story’s $84.4m holiday opening, which is the weakest benchmark from the Disney-era Star Wars films; a print closer to $90m-$100m would move it back into the healthier end of the franchise’s opening-weekend history without approaching the biggest saga launches. For a 4-day Memorial Day release, the key question is not whether it opens strongly in absolute terms, but whether demand clears the revised tracking band by enough to avoid a late slip back towards the studio-estimate side of the ledger.

Traders should watch for any further tracking updates, the final theatrical split between the 3-day and 4-day figures, and whether advance sales or family-friendly holiday walk-up appear to be outperforming expectations. The Numbers will ultimately settle the market using final daily box office data for May 22-25, not studio estimates, so the main dependency is how the first four days actually populate across the holiday frame. Any late marketing push, premium format availability, or competing release weakness would matter most if it changes whether the film lands near $80m or pushes into the higher end of the revised $90m-plus range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.