Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its June 2026 meeting, with new Chair Kevin Warsh removing language that previously hinted at future cuts and instead signalling a potential hike later this year[1]. This shift, driven by inflation spikes from the Iran conflict disrupting energy markets, has pushed the median 2026 rate projection up to 3.8%, implying at least one increase is likely[1]. Consequently, the crowd-implied 0% probability for a qualifying cut in the April–July window now reflects a market that has fully priced in a wait-and-see stance rather than easing[3].

Historically, the Fed has rarely cut rates when inflation remains elevated above its 2% target, especially following supply shocks like the current Middle East conflict[3]. In comparable episodes from the 1990s and 2000s, rate cuts were deferred until inflation pressures subsided, with the bar to cut now higher than at the start of 2026[3]. The current probability of zero for a cut aligns with this pattern, as the Fed’s focus has shifted squarely to inflation risks while unemployment remains steady[3].

Traders should monitor the upcoming April 28–29, June 16–17, and July 28–29 FOMC meetings for any changes in the dot plot or policy statement wording[2]. Key catalysts include PCE inflation data, which rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending in March, and developments in Iran that could alter global energy prices[4]. CME Group’s FedWatch tool now suggests a nearly 60% chance of at least one rate hike by year-end, with traders expecting a possible increase as soon as October[1]. Any deviation from the current 3.50%–3.75% range would signal a shift, but the prevailing outlook remains firmly on hold[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.