Fed Decision in October?

Platform comparison

Market context

The October FOMC meeting is still the key near-term event, with the Fed’s calendar showing a two-day meeting on 27-28 October and a statement on 28 October.[1][5] After the July decision, policy was left unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% amid a 9-3 split, with three regional presidents preferring a hike, which matters because a narrow, divided committee usually reduces the odds of a surprise move unless the data shift materially before the meeting.[13][14]

On that backdrop, a 1% yes probability is consistent with a market that sees almost no chance of a change at this meeting, especially given the Fed’s recent pattern of holding steady and the fact that October is not a Summary of Economic Projections meeting.[4][7] Comparable recent decisions have shown the Fed can deliver multi-vote dissent without changing rates, which suggests traders are likely treating the bar for an October cut or hike as high unless inflation, labour-market or financial-conditions data force a rethink.[2][3][13]

What matters now is the run of data and Fed communication before 27-28 October: inflation prints, employment reports, retail sales and any speeches from policymakers can move expectations quickly, particularly if they alter the perceived likelihood of another hold versus a late-year adjustment. The official decision will be released at 6:00 pm GMT on 28 October, and settlement should track the first published FOMC statement for that meeting, so any late headlines around the statement, vote split or guidance will be the main catalysts to watch.[5][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.