0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as commercial shipping suspends operations following a brief, failed reopening in late April. With the US declaring a naval blockade against Iran and fresh military strikes launched to keep the passage open, daily vessel counts have plummeted to near zero, far below the normal baseline of roughly 60 ships per day [2]. This active conflict has stranded over 150 vessels, including tankers and bulk carriers, while war-risk insurance premiums have surged to more than 16 times their standard rates [2].

Historical precedents for a total zero-traffic day are scarce under normal conditions, yet the current war scenario mirrors the near-standstill observed for weeks earlier this year when Iran initiated assaults on vessels and imposed tolls [1]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a zero-ship day appears misaligned with the reality that throughput currently sits at under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage [2]. Given that the strait is officially classified as closed with commercial shipping suspended, the threshold for market resolution is already met in practice, even if official IMF PortWatch data lags slightly behind real-time monitoring.

Traders must monitor the timing of the next IMF PortWatch daily publication for the “Arrivals of Ships” metric, as this is the sole settlement trigger [9]. Key catalysts include President Trump’s stipulation that strait reopening is a prerequisite for any ceasefire, alongside the ongoing US-Israeli naval pressure intended to force passage [1]. Any announcement regarding a negotiated interim agreement or a sudden shift in Iranian defensive posture, such as the removal of suspected mines, would be the primary variable to watch for a potential return to normal traffic levels [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.