US-Iran ceasefire continues through 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

In the last 24–48 hours, the main shift has been from fragile calm to open warnings: Reuters reported on 17 August that Iran said it would escalate if Washington failed to honour the interim deal within weeks, while also saying there were no talks on extending the ceasefire[1][2]. The same reporting said the U.S. ruled out extending the temporary arrangement, leaving the status quo dependent on whether both sides keep avoiding direct military escalation[2][3].

That context helps explain the 97% implied probability. The market is effectively pricing a continuation of non-action, and recent history supports that reading: the ceasefire framework has repeatedly been described as brittle, with earlier reporting noting it quickly unravelled over the Strait of Hormuz dispute and that the June accord set only a 60-day window, extendable by mutual consent[2][3]. Comparable prediction-style setups tend to stay heavily skewed towards “Yes” until there is a specific military incident, because the decisive event is a U.S.-initiated airstrike or missile strike directly on Iran, not rhetoric or regional signalling.

For traders, the key catalysts are scheduled diplomacy, any public U.S. defence or presidential statements, and developments around the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions waivers, or regional shipping pressure. Reuters also reported on 5 August that Iran warned Gulf states any new U.S. attack would trigger retaliation across energy infrastructure, underscoring how quickly a shipping or energy incident could change the odds[4]. The near-term risk is not a formal extension announcement so much as an abrupt breakdown in the current restraint, especially if talks remain stalled through late August and September[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.