Total Internet Blackout in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran’s internet has been back online since the May restoration, and there has been no fresh nationwide collapse in the last 24-48 hours. That leaves the market at 0% YES for now, but the relevant risk is still a deliberate state shutdown rather than a normal technical outage, because Iran has repeatedly cut connectivity during security crises and unrest.[4][11][16]

The main historical guide is that Iran has used sweeping, near-total blackouts before: seven days in November 2019, a shutdown during the January 2026 protests, and then an even longer wartime blackout in 2026 that lasted about 88 days before partial restoration.[2][4][7][11] Those episodes show that once the authorities choose this tool, traffic can fall to effectively zero very quickly and stay there for days or weeks, which is why the market should be read as a political escalation bet rather than a bandwidth or infrastructure question.[1][15][17]

For traders, the key catalysts are protest waves, major security incidents, and official telecom or security directives, because those have preceded previous shutdowns.[1][3][7] The latest partial reopening in May came after President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered access restored, underscoring that an executive order can reverse a blackout as fast as it begins.[4][9][11] The next checks are whether unrest re-escalates, whether there are war-related disruptions, and whether monitoring services such as Cloudflare Radar or NetBlocks show bytes transferred dropping towards the 1% threshold for six consecutive hours.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.