Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States has intensified pressure on Iran to issue a public guarantee ending attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a demand made just days before negotiations in Oman and Switzerland. Senior US officials explicitly stated on Friday that Washington requires a declarative Iranian statement confirming all channels are open and that ships will no longer be targeted, linking this commitment to the continuation of ceasefire talks [1][9]. Despite this diplomatic push, Tehran has shown no sign of issuing the required pledge, with Iranian lawmakers asserting the nation will never relinquish authority over the strait and foreign ministry spokespeople framing US demands as aggression [2].

Historical precedents suggest the current 2% probability reflects Iran’s consistent refusal to unilaterally disarm its maritime leverage. In previous escalations involving Israeli or US actions, Iran has closed the strait or charged for safe passage rather than issuing unconditional non-attack commitments, treating the waterway as a strategic bargaining chip rather than a neutral zone [3][4]. Even when maritime traffic resumed following a provisional agreement, Iran signaled the strait would remain closed until Israel committed to a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon, demonstrating that policy shifts are conditional on external concessions rather than standalone declarations [6].

Traders should monitor the outcome of the Sunday talks in Switzerland and any scheduled statements from Iran’s joint military command, as these are the primary catalysts for a potential policy shift. The US has threatened new tolls on the waterway if no conclusive agreement is reached within 60 days, creating a high-stakes deadline that could force a public announcement [6]. However, recent CENTCOM strikes destroying over 90 Iranian military targets, including IRGC small boats, indicate a hardening of US resolve that may further reduce Iran’s willingness to issue a voluntary commitment without significant reciprocal gains [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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