Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

The last 24–48 hours have brought no fresh public indication that the US and Iran have resumed kinetic hostilities, which is why the market is still pricing an overwhelmingly likely continuation. That said, the ceasefire is being treated as a fragile truce rather than a settled peace: the underlying deal was framed as a short pause tied to wider negotiations, and earlier reporting showed how quickly both sides began testing its limits. In practical terms, the current price reflects a view that, absent a public US confirmation of strikes on Iranian soil or clear corroborated reporting of such action, the ceasefire is more likely to hold through the deadline than to collapse.

Comparable truces in the region have often held long enough to clear the immediate shock, then come under pressure from disputes over scope, sequencing and verification. Markets have tended to distinguish between headline ceasefires and durable agreements, especially when the terms hinge on access, sanctions relief or third-party mediation. That is the key read-through here: a high probability does not mean low tension, but rather that the bar for a “No” resolution is narrow and depends on a specific, publicly confirmed escalation, not on rhetoric or isolated incidents.

For traders, the main catalysts remain official White House and Pentagon statements, Iranian state media or foreign ministry announcements, and any credible wire-service reporting of US kinetic action. The other watchpoint is whether mediation channels stay active and whether any schedule for follow-up talks is maintained; the IG note on 8 April highlighted how ceasefire-related relief can reverse quickly if talks stall or if either side accuses the other of violations. If no qualifying strike is confirmed within one calendar day of any reported incident, the market is still likely to treat the truce as intact.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.