Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas has not publicly moved towards a credible commitment to disarm in Gaza, and the latest reporting points the other way: Reuters said in April that Hamas told mediators it would not even discuss disarmament without firm assurances of a full Israeli withdrawal, while later reports in June and July said the group was still setting preconditions and rejecting phased surrender of weapons.[1][5][9] That leaves the crowd’s 0% yes view consistent with the public record; there has been no official Hamas announcement of relinquishing or dismantling its military structure in Gaza, either in full or in part.[1][2][6]

Historically, Hamas has treated its arsenal as leverage rather than a bargaining chip it will give up early, and comparable ceasefire talks have repeatedly stalled on sequencing: withdrawal first, disarmament later, or disarmament only after a broader political settlement.[3][10][11] In earlier rounds of Gaza diplomacy, Hamas has rejected formulations that required surrendering weapons without binding guarantees on Israeli withdrawal, reconstruction, or a Palestinian state horizon, which matters because this market resolves only on a clear official announcement by Hamas leadership, not on media reports, mediators’ drafts, or ambiguous language about “handing over” specific weapons.[1][3][11]

The main catalysts now are any formal statement from Khalil al-Hayya or another widely recognised Hamas leadership figure, any mediator-backed text that explicitly changes the sequencing, and any breakthrough on the linked issues of Israeli withdrawal, aid flows, and transitional governance.[4][5][6] Reuters reported that Hamas wanted withdrawal guarantees before disarmament talks, suggesting that any shift would likely arrive only after a major diplomatic package is finalised rather than as a standalone concession.[1] If negotiations stay stuck on the same preconditions, the probability of a qualifying yes remains structurally low.[2][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.