BK Hacken vs. Hammarby IF

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Market context

BK Hacken travel to Hammarby IF on 31 May 2026 in an Allsvenskan fixture with settlement closing at midday that same day. The 21% implied probability for a Hacken victory reflects their status as away side against a Stockholm-based opponent with established home advantage in Swedish football's top division. No material shifts in team news or injury reports have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter the baseline expectation, though late-week squad confirmations remain possible given the proximity to match day.

Historically, away wins in Allsvenskan carry a win rate around 25–28%, making the current 21% reading slightly pessimistic relative to that benchmark. Hammarby's home record and Hacken's away form through the 2025–26 season will be the primary determinants; teams with stronger defensive records at home tend to compress away-win probabilities further, whilst Hacken's attacking output on the road becomes critical to any upside case. Recent Allsvenskan seasons show that pre-match favouritism often reflects underlying quality gaps rather than random variation, so the probability sits within expected ranges for a mid-table or lower-ranked away side.

Traders should monitor official team sheets released 24 hours before kickoff, as suspensions or unexpected absences can shift win probabilities by 3–5 percentage points. Weather conditions on match day—wind and rain affect passing accuracy in Swedish spring fixtures—and any late injury confirmations from either camp warrant attention. Hammarby's recent form in the three weeks prior to 31 May will also signal whether the home side enters the match in momentum or decline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.