St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cardinals travel to Queens on 11 June for a 1:10 PM ET start against the Mets, with the settlement window closing five days later on 18 June. The 0% crowd probability reflects either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with market display, as both teams will field competitive rosters in a regular-season matchup where either outcome remains possible until first pitch.

Historical matchups between these franchises show competitive balance. Over their last ten meetings, the Cardinals and Mets have split results fairly evenly, with neither team establishing dominance in recent seasons. The Cardinals' 2024 campaign saw them finish below .500, whilst the Mets have cycled through roster adjustments that created inconsistent performance. June matchups in particular tend to reflect early-season form rather than predictive power, making pre-game momentum and injury status more influential than seasonal records.

Traders should monitor pitching assignments and roster health updates through 10 June. The Mets' starting rotation depth and the Cardinals' recent offensive trends will shape pregame odds substantially. Weather conditions at Citi Field—temperature, wind direction, and precipitation forecasts—matter for a 1:10 PM daytime game, as do any late roster moves or injury announcements. The settlement window's five-day buffer provides adequate time for makeup scheduling should postponement occur, though cancellation without a makeup remains unlikely under MLB protocols.

Methodology

We track St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.