San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The San Francisco Giants beat the Miami Marlins 6-3 in Miami on 20 June, so the market’s **100% YES** crowd view is now aligned with the official result rather than a live pre-game read. ESPN’s final score page shows Max Meyer earning the win and the Marlins finishing on top, which makes the outcome binary for settlement unless the listing is still waiting on a formal results feed.[3]

That is the key comparison point for reading this price: when an MLB game has already been completed and the result is unambiguous, crowd probabilities tend to collapse towards certainty, because the remaining risk is administrative rather than sporting. The earlier preview had Miami as the home side with Max Meyer expected to continue a strong run, and one pre-game pick also favoured the Marlins, but those signals are now superseded by the final score.[7][2][3]

For traders, the only meaningful catalysts now are confirmation items: whether the market’s designated resolution source has ingested the final box score, and whether any post-game correction or official scoring change is recorded before the settlement window closes on 27 June. ESPN’s game page and the MLB preview/video listings both indicate the game was played on schedule at 4:10 pm ET in Miami, so a postponement scenario does not appear relevant unless an official record issue emerges later.[1][3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.