Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The game itself has already been played, and the latest available scoreline shows the Reds beat the Yankees 10-2, which is the key change over the last 24–48 hours for this market. ESPN’s final game page lists that result for 20 June, and video highlights also describe the Reds winning to level the series at one game apiece.[4][2][3]

That result matters because pregame pricing had made New York a clear favourite, with ESPN’s preview listing the Yankees at around -200 and the Reds at +162, so a Reds win would have been the less expected outcome relative to the market’s baseline.[1] In comparable MLB match-ups, a home favourite of that size typically implies a win probability well above 60%, which helps explain why a 0% crowd-implied price is a very strong sceptical signal until the official outcome is locked in.[1]

For traders, the main catalyst is not team news now but settlement mechanics: whether the game is recorded as complete, postponed, cancelled, or tied, because the market rules say postponements keep it open, while a cancellation or tie resolves 50-50. The settlement window runs to 27 June, so the practical watchpoint is any official league scoring update or rescheduling notice, rather than line movement or injury reports at this stage.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.