Türkiye vs. United States

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group D match between Türkiye and the United States, set for Thursday, 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, has seen a sharp shift in market sentiment over the last 48 hours. While the crowd-implied probability for a Türkiye win sits at 25%, recent odds movements suggest the US is gaining traction as a slight favourite, with bookmakers now pricing them at +150 to win outright[1]. This adjustment follows Türkiye’s narrow 1-0 victory over Kosovo in their UEFA Playoff final, which confirmed their tournament berth but exposed defensive fragility that traders are now factoring in[2].

Historically, the USMNT holds a 2-1-1 record against Türkiye across four meetings since 1991, having won the last two encounters decisively[3]. Comparable cases from past World Cups show that teams entering with strong recent form against their opponents—like the US in 2003—often outperform initial market expectations, particularly when playing in familiar territory. The 25% probability for Türkiye appears to underweight the US’s consistent group-stage performances in recent tournaments, where they have rarely failed to secure at least one point[4].

Traders should monitor the US squad announcement expected within 24 hours, as Pulisic’s return from a scoring slump could significantly alter the dynamic[5]. Additionally, watch for Türkiye’s final training reports ahead of their flight to Los Angeles, given their travel fatigue from the European qualifiers. The match schedule confirms kickoff at 7:00 PM local time, with tickets now priced above $1,986, reflecting high demand[8]. Any late injury news or tactical shifts from either coach will be critical catalysts before the settlement window closes on 26 June 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Türkiye vs. United States across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

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