Colombia vs. Costa Rica

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Market context

Colombia and Costa Rica are scheduled to play a FIFA International Friendly on 1 June 2026, with the match settlement window closing at 23:00 UTC that same day. The 88% implied probability reflects strong confidence the fixture will occur as scheduled. No fixture cancellations or postponements have been reported in the past 48 hours, and both national federations have confirmed squad preparations for their respective June windows.

Friendlies between CONMEBOL and CONCACAF sides at this stage of the calendar typically proceed without disruption. Historical precedent from comparable June international windows shows cancellation rates below 2% once squads are formally announced and travel logistics confirmed. Colombia and Costa Rica both have stable domestic league schedules concluding by late May, removing typical fixture congestion risks that might force withdrawal.

Traders should monitor official CONMEBOL and Costa Rican Football Federation statements through 31 May for any squad injury updates or last-minute administrative changes. Weather conditions in the scheduled venue—likely Colombia's home ground—carry negligible settlement risk given modern stadium infrastructure. The primary remaining variable is whether either federation might unexpectedly withdraw players for domestic cup finals or injury concerns, though such moves typically surface weeks rather than days before friendlies. Settlement hinges on the match being played in any form; result and scoreline are immaterial to the YES outcome.

Methodology

We track Colombia vs. Costa Rica on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.