Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hull City and Middlesbrough meet on the final day of the 2025–26 Championship season, with the 22% implied probability for a Hull victory reflecting their status as underdogs in what may be a fixture with significant playoff or survival implications depending on both sides' positions come May. The settlement window closes immediately after the 15:00 kickoff, leaving no room for delayed results or fixture postponements.

Historical precedent suggests that end-of-season Championship matches between sides in mid-table or lower positions often produce tighter contests than pre-season form would indicate. Hull and Middlesbrough have traded wins fairly evenly in recent seasons, though Middlesbrough have held a slight edge in head-to-head records since 2020. The 22% probability sits near the baseline for an away side without a clear statistical advantage, suggesting the market has priced in Middlesbrough's home advantage without overweighting it.

Traders should monitor team news through the week, particularly injury updates affecting either squad's key players—a late withdrawal could shift odds materially given the fixture's timing. Middlesbrough's league position and remaining fixtures before May 23 will clarify whether they're chasing points or resting players. Hull's recent form in April and early May will be the primary catalyst; a run of wins could narrow the probability, whilst consecutive defeats would likely extend it. Any official confirmation of fixture postponement would void the market before settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.