WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude is trading in a markedly softer spot than it was only a few days ago, after a sharp pullback from the early-August spike linked to Middle East risk and then reversed when President Trump called off an attack on Iran, sending September WTI down 4.5% to $80.89 on 3 August in CNBC’s report. That leaves the market entering the settlement window with a heavy discount to the levels seen in the latest retail and chart feeds, which puts any fixed “above” threshold much closer to an outside call than a routine daily close.[17][1][10]

For context, WTI has been volatile enough that short-dated markets can reprice quickly around geopolitical headlines and delivery-month roll effects. Recent quotes in the low- to mid-$70s from TradingEconomics and Oilprice sit well below the 25 July Tindex print of $90.24, showing how rapidly the prompt contract can gap when headline risk fades or inventory expectations shift.[9][10][1] Historical WTI behaviour also matters because the front month often trades on near-term supply, not broad economic averages, so a single session can swing the close materially.[2][4]

A trader watching today should focus on any fresh statements from Washington or Tehran, since the market just moved on a security headline and remains sensitive to renewed disruption risk. The other near-term dependency is the U.S. inventory and product-flow calendar, because crude, gasoline and distillate data can change the close even when the broader trend is flat; this is especially relevant with August contracts and the usual end-of-day liquidity thinning into settlement.[17][4][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.