Norway vs. France - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The FIFA World Cup Group I clash between Norway and France kicks off today at Boston Stadium, with both sides holding six points and needing a result to secure top positioning. Over the last 24 hours, market sentiment has shifted slightly as France’s recent 3-1 victory pattern in seven of their last games has reinforced their status as favourites, yet the 9% probability for an exact score outcome reflects the high variance in this fixture where both teams have scored in eight of Norway’s last nine matches[1][3].

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group games with two high-scoring teams rarely settle below 10%, as seen in similar 2022 Group E encounters where defensive volatility pushed exact outcomes to 12–15%[1]. France’s last 11 games all featured at least three goals, and their tendency to win by 3-1 in four of their last seven fixtures suggests a narrow exact score is plausible, but the 9% figure implies traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of “Any Other Score” due to Haaland and Mbappé’s goal-scoring volatility[1][3].

Traders should monitor the final confirmed line-ups released by 11:00 ET, as Didier Deschamps’ absence for France could alter tactical discipline[6]. The referee, Michael Oliver, is known for strict foul management, which may increase stoppage time and goal chances[2]. Additionally, check ITV1’s pre-match broadcast for any late injury updates on Kylian Mbappé or Erling Haaland, as their fitness directly impacts the exact score probability[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. France - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.