Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% in June, but new Chair Kevin Warsh immediately stripped the policy statement of any cutting bias, signalling a pivot toward hikes as inflation remains above the 2% target[9]. Renewed Middle East tensions, specifically escalating Iran conflict risks, have pushed market-implied odds of a September rate increase to approximately 70%, with derivatives pricing a 25-basis-point hike as early as that meeting[6]. Consequently, the 0% crowd-implied probability for a cut in this June–September window aligns with the FOMC’s unanimous decision to defer any reductions until early 2027[6].

Historically, such a rapid shift from cutting to hiking bias occurs only when inflation proves persistent despite prior reductions; the current trajectory mirrors the 2022–2023 cycle where nine of 18 FOMC members now forecast at least one increase by year-end[5]. The median official projection for the federal funds rate by December 2026 has risen to 3.8%, eliminating the previous forecast for a cut and implying a hike is very much a possibility[9]. This contrasts with late 2025, when the rate was cut by 0.25% to its current level, marking the first time since then the committee has explicitly removed downward pressure from its outlook[9].

Traders must monitor the July 28–29 FOMC minutes and the September 15–16 decision, alongside weekly inflation data that could trigger an immediate hike if prices spike further[6]. The CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a greater likelihood of a September hike compared to maintaining the current rate, with odds soaring 853% since December[5]. Any surprise geopolitical escalation in the Middle East or a sustained breach of the 2% inflation target will likely cement the hike, making a cut in this window effectively impossible under current economic conditions[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.