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Ethereum above … on August 27?

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Ethereum above … on August 27?" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Prediction Today.

1,800 100% 1,900 100% 2,000 100% 2,100 100% Volume: $108K Liquidity: $438K Closes: 27 Aug 2026
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Ethereum above … on August 27?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1,800100%
1,900100%
2,000100%
2,100100%
2,200100%
2,30099%
2,40096%
2,50054%
2,6005%
2,7001%
2,8000%
2,9000%

Market context

Ethereum has spent the last 24-48 hours consolidating after a sharp August rally, with Binance showing ETH/USDT around 2,475 and the broader market still digesting record ETF inflows and a climb back towards the 2,500 area[11][13]. That leaves the noon ET close more exposed to intraday swings than to a clean trend continuation, especially as ETH has recently been trading in a wide band between roughly 2,400 and 2,500 on Binance-linked references[1][8][13].

The current 100% YES crowd price implies the market is treating the threshold as comfortably beaten, which usually compresses upside for holders while making the contract sensitive to any late pullback. Recent comparable moves have shown ETH can gap through round numbers quickly and then stall or retrace; on 19-20 August it surged strongly before settling back into a lower range, and on 26 August daily data still pointed to a close near 2,450 after the run-up[8][12].

For today’s catalysts, traders will watch whether ETF flow headlines, macro risk appetite, and any fresh Ethereum Foundation or exchange announcements arrive before the 16:00Z settlement window closes[4][6][7][13]. The main dependency is simple: the Binance 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET must still print above the title strike, so late-session volatility, liquidity thins, or a sharp reversal in spot ETH/USDT matters more than broader weekly direction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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Related Topics

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