Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs MIBR (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs MIBR (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs MIBR (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) | 45% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs MIBR (+2.5) | 44% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-4.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-5.5) vs MIBR (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-6.5) vs MIBR (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Leviatán and MIBR were both in the mix at the sharp end of Group Alpha before this match, but the market has already moved to a near-certain Leviatán win. Official standings currently show Leviatán on 3-1 and MIBR also on 3-1, with NRG ahead on 4-0, so the head-to-head mattered for seeding as well as simple match record.[2]
The recent form case still favours Leviatán: they were described in post-match coverage as the team to beat in Alpha after clean 2-0 wins, while MIBR’s own results have been solid but less dominant.[3][6] For comparison, Leviatán also beat MIBR in earlier Americas play in 2025, which gives traders a recent direct reference point, although bo3 series in VALORANT can swing sharply with map vetoes and side selection.[12][15]
For the immediate catalyst watchlist, the key issue is whether the scheduled match is completed within the settlement window, because a no-show, cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days would force a 50-50 resolution under the market rules. The VCT Americas schedule lists this as a Group Alpha bo3 in the regular July–September stage, and any official postponement, format change, or broadcast update from Riot would be the main thing that could alter how the market settles.[10][2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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