Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs GIANTX (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-4.5) vs GIANTX (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-6.5) vs GIANTX (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-4.5) vs GIANTX (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GIANTX (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-7.5) vs GIANTX (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-6.5) vs GIANTX (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs GIANTX (+5.5) | 0% |
Market context
FUT Esports are already in control of the series, with live match data showing them 1-0 up against GIANTX and the market effectively pricing a completed FUT win as certain. That is a sharp shift from pre-match pricing, but it fits the live state of play: in a best-of-three, a first-map lead materially reduces the amount of remaining variance, especially when the favourite also brings the stronger head-to-head record.[1][4][11]
The historical frame still points one way. Across recent meetings, FUT have consistently had the upper hand over GIANTX, including a 2-0 win in 2024 and a reported 4-0 head-to-head edge in current match previews and bracket pages.[5][8][11] Pre-match analysis also described FUT as the more stable side over the last month, while GIANTX entered with a weaker recent win rate and several 0-2 losses, which helps explain why traders leaned heavily towards FUT even before the first map was played.[1][4][11]
For today’s outlook, the main catalyst is simple: whether the match is formally completed and recorded with a winner before the settlement window closes, because an interruption, abandonment or long delay could still alter the resolution path under the market rules. The practical watchpoint is the live bracket and official result feed from VCT EMEA, since this is an upper-bracket quarterfinal and the final outcome depends on match completion rather than just the current map score.[1][7][11]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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