Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DRX (-2.5) vs Sharper Esport (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: DRX (-2.5) vs Sharper Esport (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 3% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: KRX (-1.5) vs Sharper Esport (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: DRX (-2.5) vs Sharper Esport (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Kiwoom DRX (-3.5) vs Sharper Esport (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
DRX face Sharper Esport in the upper bracket round three of the VCT Pacific Play-In on 21 August 2026, a best-of-three fixture scheduled for 4:00 AM ET. The match represents a critical juncture in the regional qualifying tournament, with advancement to later stages contingent on victory. Current market pricing reflects near-certainty around DRX's progression, though the settlement window extends only to the scheduled start time, creating a narrow window for match-day developments.
DRX's historical performance in VCT Pacific competition and domestic Korean Valorant establishes them as the favoured outfit. The organisation has consistently fielded competitive rosters capable of competing at international standards, whilst Sharper Esport remains a less established regional presence. Comparable upper bracket matchups in prior VCT cycles have typically resolved along seeding lines when skill gaps are pronounced, though upsets do occur in best-of-three formats where preparation and momentum shift outcomes.
Traders should monitor official VCT Pacific scheduling confirmations through the tournament's broadcast channels in the 48 hours preceding the match. Roster availability—particularly any last-minute substitutions or player eligibility issues—could alter competitive balance. The 4:00 AM ET start time falls outside standard Western viewing hours, potentially affecting broadcast reliability and match integrity reporting. Any postponement announcement must occur before the 21 August 14:00:00 UTC settlement deadline; matches rescheduled beyond 4 September 2026 would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: DRX vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCT Pacific … on Prediction Today
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →