LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Shopify Rebellion already beat Disguised 2–0 in their most recent LCS regular-season meeting, which is the clearest recent form reference for this series. That earlier win also snapped Shopify Rebellion’s five-match losing run, so the head-to-head backdrop still leans towards Shopify in short-series play even if broader form has been uneven.[1][2]

The current 100% crowd price is best read as a certainty signal on the match *being resolved*, not a guarantee of a clean competitive edge. Recent preview data before this rematch still described the pairing as close, with conflicting form indicators and a tight series expectation rather than a one-sided mismatch.[3] The market therefore looks heavily anchored to the scheduled fixture reaching a result, rather than to any fresh edge on map score.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirmation the Bo3 starts on schedule, whether either side issues roster or competitive readiness updates, and any league scheduling change that could push the series outside the settlement window. Because the market only pays out on a completed winner unless the game is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days, the key watchpoint is operational rather than strategic.[3][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.