LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The North American Challengers League Upper bracket semifinal between Supernova and Conviction is scheduled for 22 May at 7:00 PM ET, with the market settlement window closing 2 May 23 at 04:00 UTC. The 0% implied probability reflects either minimal trading activity or a technical issue with the market interface, as both teams remain active competitors in the league with established rosters and recent match history. Neither squad has announced roster changes, coaching departures, or organisational instability that would justify absolute certainty in either direction.

Conviction has historically performed as a mid-tier Challengers League contender, whilst Supernova's playoff positioning and recent form determine their seeding advantage in this upper bracket matchup. The relative strength between these teams depends heavily on meta alignment and individual player performance in the weeks preceding the match. Recent League of Legends patch cycles and champion pool shifts can significantly impact team viability, particularly for squads without deep champion flexibility.

Traders should monitor official NACL announcements for any schedule changes, player availability issues, or technical delays that might trigger the 50-50 tie resolution clause. The settlement window extends only seven days beyond the scheduled date, meaning any significant postponement could activate alternative resolution conditions. Watch for roster confirmations and scrim results circulating within the competitive community in the 48 hours before match time, as these often signal team confidence and preparation levels. Any last-minute substitutions or coaching staff changes would materialise through official league channels or team social media.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.